CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID Thu 15 Dec 06:00 - Fri 16 Dec 06:00 2005 (UTC)
ISSUED: 14 Dec 21:00 (UTC)
FORECASTER: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS

Intense long-wave trough extends southward over Europe, and strong cyclogenesis is forecast over northern Central Europe at the end of the period. Affected airmass is forecast to be rather stable, but as strong forcing should be possible along associated vort-maxima, thunderstorms may occur at early Friday. Over eastern Mediterranean ... old cut-off low merges to the polar jet and weakens. QG forcing ahould be weak. Affected airmass is forecast to be characterized by neutral to slightly unstable lapse rates ... and showers and thunderstorms are forecast. However ... given weak forcing ... and quite poor low level moisture ... as well as rather weak vertical wind shear ... severe thunderstorms are not expected.

DISCUSSION

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